In a major shift in Russian intentions, Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov, in an exclusive interview to the BBC, has suggested that his country is prepared to leave the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula of Crimea if Kiev does not renew the Russian navy’s lease of the Crimean port of Sevastopol in 2017.
The Crimea is one of the expected flashpoints that could get out of control given Russia’s continued vocal opposition to the Ukraine’s efforts to join NATO. For over two hundred years the Russian navy is based in the Crimea and after the fall of communism, the peninsula’s governance was taken over by an independent Ukraine although Kiev leased the port of Sevastopol to the Russian military for a further twenty years in 1997. Crimeans feel closer to Russia compared to Ukraine and the nationalists certainly would not condone Mr.Ivanov’s take on the situation. Years of Soviet rule and Russian dominance have given a complex look to the politics over the tiny peninsula. Kiev’s closeness to the west and the inevitable intentions to join NATO has rattled many in the Russian military brass and analysts feel that Crimea would bear the brunt of any military flashpoint between Russia and the Ukraine over the issue of the presence of the Russian Black Sea fleet inside sovereign Ukraine in the historic port of Sevastopol.
Deputy Prime Minister Ivanov’s assurance of a Russian withdrawal from Sevastopol, incase of a rejection of the lease, would go a long way in easing western fears over the situation, although one must not get carried away with a less powerful Deputy PM’s statement when the Kremlin’s foreign policy gets dictated by bigger and more powerful Russian political bears. Talking exclusively to the BBC’s Panorama programme, Mr.Ivanov was asked about his reaction if the Ukrainian government does not renew the lease. The former KGB operative and former defense minister was quoted as saying,

Yes I can imagine that(Russian withdrawal)easily after 2017. Why not, if the Ukrainian government then in power decides not to prolong the lease?

The issue of Crimea runs deep into Russian emotions and it remains to be seen nationalist reactions if in the near future the Russian navy has to leave the Black Sea after two hundred and twenty five years of presence in the region. This is indeed a sensitive issue with any Russian.
Stakes are high in Russia-West relations and the Georgian conflict has given rise to a cold war like apprehensions among various international political circles but Deputy PM Ivanov’s statement on the Crimea is being seen as Moscow’s effort to mend ties with the US and Europe as Russia and the West need each other now more than ever before given the global financial crisis.
Military and ideological issues will always remain contentious when it comes to Moscow and Washington and given Russia’s re-emergence as a massive economic and military force, differences are bound to occur as the Kremlin reaches all out to assert itself as a major global player thus presumably ending America’s foreign affairs monopoly. Crimea is just the tip of the iceberg.